Category prices for TVs have fallen since late 2024, but the drop hasn't been smooth: seasonal sales still create the deepest dips. If you need a TV soon, aim for the next major sale window. If you can wait, set a price alert on your target model and buy when it nears its historical low.
TL;DR:
- January and February Super Bowl sales and late November promotions usually bring the deepest discounts, while spring refresh sales offer newer technology at smaller discounts.
- OLED sets retain premium pricing longer, while LED and MiniLED models see more frequent discounts; screens over 90 inches are falling quickly as production scales.
- A closeout clears an outgoing model permanently, so buy while stock remains; promotional discounts often return at later sales, giving patient shoppers another chance.
- Compare a model’s current price with its recorded historical low and recent volatility; buy near the low if no major refresh is imminent.
- Category averages can fall even when a flagship model rises, because the television CPI combines prices across brands, sizes, and models.
Table of Contents
- Snapshot: BLS CPI and what street-price trackers show right now
- Seasonality and timing: the best windows to buy and who each window suits
- Tech and size: which display types and screen sizes hold value or decline fastest
- What drives price movement: promotions, product mix, and component economics
- Using BasketPrice's recorded price history and alerts to time a TV purchase
- A short checklist to apply before you buy
- Track TV deals and never guess at a price again
- FAQ
- Sources
Snapshot: BLS CPI and what street-price trackers show right now
The Bureau of Labor Statistics television CPI series tracks category-level pricing over time, and it shows a net decline in the index from its December 2024 baseline through mid-2026, with the usual seasonal bumps layered on top. That's a different measurement than a single model's sticker price. CPI aggregates across hundreds of models, screen sizes, and brands, so it can fall even while a specific flagship OLED holds its price or climbs.
Retailer-level trackers tell a complementary story. TWICE's analysis of daily retailer-level tracking across more than 50 countries finds that promotional intensity and shifting product mix are now the main forces behind retail price movement, more so than simple cost inflation or deflation. Meanwhile, Statista's modeled forecast for average television price worldwide projects a gradual decline in average unit price through 2030, which lines up with the CPI's longer arc even though the two data sets measure different things.
TVs have gotten cheaper on average since 2024, but the pace of decline depends on which measurement you trust. The BLS television CPI series is the closest thing to an official scorecard for US shoppers.
| Data point | What it measures | What it shows |
|---|---|---|
| BLS television CPI | Category-wide retail price index | Net decline from the December 2024 baseline through mid-2026 |
| — | Year-over-year shift in the index | Seasonal variation layered on a downward trend |
| Statista unit price forecast | Modeled global average unit price | Gradual decline projected through 2030 |
Seasonality and timing: the best windows to buy and who each window suits
TV prices don't fall evenly across the year. They dip hardest around a handful of recurring events, and each one rewards a slightly different kind of buyer.
- January and February, around the Super Bowl: retailers clear out the previous year's inventory to make room for new lineups, which tends to produce the deepest discounts on last year's models.
- Spring model refresh (March through May): brands announce new lineups, and outgoing models get marked down as closeouts rather than promotions.
- Prime Day and summer tech sales (June through July): these favor shoppers who want a balance of price and selection, since inventory is fresh but discounts are real.
- Black Friday and Cyber Week (late November): this is typically the widest selection of deep discounts across every size and technology tier, though the newest flagship sets rarely drop much.
If you want the absolute cheapest price on a known model, target January or late November. If you want the newest technology at a reasonable price, spring is your window. If you want the widest selection with solid but not rock-bottom pricing, Prime Day works well.
Closeouts and promotional discounts look similar but behave differently. A closeout permanently clears an outgoing model and rarely comes back in stock once it's gone. A promotional discount is temporary and often repeats at the next sale event, so the same model may dip again in a few months.
Pro Tip: If a model you want just got marked down as a closeout, buy soon, since that price won't return once stock runs out.
Tech and size: which display types and screen sizes hold value or decline fastest
Display technology changes how fast a TV's price moves. OLED panels tend to hold a premium price for longer, while value-tier LED and MiniLED sets see more frequent and steeper promotional discounting.
- OLED: retains premium pricing longer, according to TWICE's retailer tracking, making it a slower-moving category for bargain hunters.
- MiniLED and standard LED: see more frequent promotional cycles, so patient buyers in this tier often find meaningful savings within a single sale season.
- Ultra-large screens (over 90 inches): have been experiencing steep price compression driven by manufacturing scale and competition, per the same TWICE analysis, which can make now a better relative buying point than a few years ago for size-focused shoppers.
- 8K and MicroLED: remain niche categories with pricing dynamics of their own, driven more by limited production volume than by the seasonal patterns that govern mainstream LED and OLED sets.
The trade-off for paying a premium usually comes down to brightness, HDR performance, and gaming features like variable refresh rate. If none of those matter for your use case, a value-tier LED or MiniLED set bought during a promotional window likely delivers more savings per dollar than chasing an OLED discount.
What drives price movement: promotions, product mix, and component economics
Not every price swing means the same thing. Some reflect temporary inventory clearing, others reflect genuine shifts in what it costs to build a TV.
- Promotional intensity: retailers compete more aggressively around major sale dates, which creates short-term dips that often reverse once the event ends.
- Product mix: when more large-screen or premium models sell relative to smaller ones, the average selling price can rise even if individual model prices are falling, a pattern Counterpoint Research notes separates shipment growth from price inflation.
- Component costs: panel and chip costs shift the manufacturer's bill of materials, which eventually filters into retail pricing, though with a lag.
- Methodology gaps: TrendForce's monthly street-price survey explains that street-price surveys and BOM-based cost models answer different questions, so a forecast built on component costs can diverge from what you actually pay at checkout.
Pro Tip: When a headline says TV prices are rising, check whether it's measuring average selling price (which rises with product mix) or a per-model price (which may be falling).
Using BasketPrice's recorded price history and alerts to time a TV purchase
We record actual price history for tracked TVs rather than relying on a single day's snapshot or a retailer's own claims about a sale. That distinction matters because a "limited time offer" banner doesn't tell you whether the price is actually low compared to the past year.
- Look up the model you want on our TV deals page to see current prices depending on size and technology.
- Compare the current price against its recorded historical low and recent volatility to see whether a listed discount is meaningful or routine.
- Set a price alert and buy when the price sits near its historical low with no major model refresh expected soon, or wait if the price has been volatile.
Our best-selling TVs page lists models for readers who want to see what's moving right now.
A short checklist to apply before you buy
Before checking out, ask three things: how soon do you need the TV, which features actually matter to you, and how does today's price compare to the model's historical low. If a 65 inch MiniLED set you've been watching sits within a few percent of its lowest recorded price and no new lineup is imminent, that's a reasonable moment to buy rather than wait for Black Friday.
— Cleaning
Track TV deals and never guess at a price again
We built our tracker around one idea: you shouldn't have to take a retailer's word for whether a deal is actually good. Our recorded price history shows you a model's real historical low, recent volatility, and live offers side by side, with alerts delivered through your browser and no sign up required.
- Price history and volatility data for tracked TVs, updated continuously rather than sampled once.
- Free price-drop alerts, including triggers for drops that happen within a return window after you've already purchased.
- A best-sellers view for shoppers who want to see what others are actually buying right now.
Deal hunters and anyone with flexible timing benefit most from this approach. Start by browsing current TV prices and setting an alert on the model you're watching.
FAQ
Are TV prices expected to drop?
The BLS television CPI series shows a net category-wide decline since late 2024, and Statista's forecast projects continued gradual decline in average unit price through 2030. Individual models can still rise temporarily around new product launches, so the trend applies to the category average rather than every TV.
What's the cheapest time of year to buy a TV?
January and February, around the Super Bowl, and late November during Black Friday and Cyber Week tend to produce the deepest discounts as retailers clear outgoing inventory. Spring model refresh season offers newer technology at somewhat smaller discounts.
Is it better to buy a new TV now or wait?
If the model you want is priced near its recorded historical low and volatility has been low recently, buying now is reasonable. If the price has swung widely in recent months or a seasonal sale is approaching, setting an alert and waiting usually pays off.
Can you show me a graph of TV price trends?
The BLS television CPI series publishes a public time series you can chart directly on its site, and our own TV deals page shows recorded price history for individual tracked models.
Sources
- Bureau of Labor Statistics: Televisions (series CUUR0000SERA01)
- TWICE: TV pricing is resetting as promotions intensify and premium dynamics shift
- Counterpoint Research Q1 2026 report
- TrendForce: Monthly street price survey and methodology
- Statista Research Department: Average televisions price worldwide 2018-2030